Risk Analysis
Any enterprise, business, campaign involvesthe presence of certain risks, which may affect the final result of their conduct. The implementation of the business strategy involves changing the rights, obligations and obligations of entrepreneurs, possible occurrences of unintended and unused processes, and other consequences.
To correctly choose a set of actions forachievement of the result of the activity, it is necessary to take into account the possible influence of side effects, so that the intended event does not lose its meaning. Any tactical (strategic) scheme must be subjected to risk analysis before the application in order to minimize the latter.
The risk analysis of an enterprise (company) begins withtheir assessments. For this, it is necessary to choose an assessment methodology that must meet the safety requirements of a certain type of activity and the legal regulators of this activity.
Risk analysis requires the use of accessible information in order to assess the probability of occurrence of certain events and the possible scale of their consequences.
As a rule, risks are understood as negativeevents and circumstances, for example, losses when conducting a venture enterprise, natural disasters with serious consequences, etc. Nevertheless, risk analysis helps to identify their potential positive consequences. It is necessary to identify future problems and assess development prospects.
Risk analysis is carried out at quantitative and qualitative levels (risk analysis methods are selected individually).
In quantitative analysis of the phenomena under studyAssign numerical (quantitative) values, apply empirical data. At this level, the analysis is extremely objective and accurate (for this method) character.
Qualitative analysis includes an internal (instinctive) assessment of emerging circumstances. At this level, subjectivity and related doubts are allowed.
Comparing these two levels of analysis, it is necessary to dwell in more detail on the quantitative. It can be done in different ways.
In the deterministic approach,point estimates. In order to understand what can be the results in individual cases, different events are assigned certain values. For example, in the financial model, you can consider such options: the worst (future losses), the best (future profits) and the most likely (moderate, relative profit).
In this case, the method has several disadvantages: it does not take into account many possible scenarios, but concentrates only on a few basic versions (all of which are considered to be equivalent); insufficient consideration is given to factors that can influence the development of the situation, which leads to a simplification of the model. However, very many enterprises use this approach, in spite of the relatively low reliability of the results of such an analysis.
Stochastic risk analysis (Monte Carlo method)is more reliable. With this approach, the initial parameters are represented as ranges of values (produce a probability distribution). In this case, different variables have different probability of occurrence of consequences. Values are chosen randomly, based on possible probability distributions.
Samples are called iterations. The results of the samples are recorded. For the simulation, the sampling procedure is repeated hundreds of times, so such results are much more fully capable of revealing the probability of occurrence of the expected events. The data of such modeling can demonstrate not only future events, but also show the probability of their occurrence. The results can be represented graphically, as well as reflect their sensitivity, that is, to show which of the variables most affected the result. Using this method, it is also possible to show the relationships between the initial variables.
It is most convenient to carry out a quantitative analysisrisks on the basis of Excel spreadsheets, because the tools of this program allow you to add new functions to get the opportunity to distribute the probability and get the most accurate results.
